Another Beltway sniper victim By Michelle Malkin October 27, 2006 09:31 PM Lee Malvo, one of the convicted Beltway-area snipers, has confessed to another murder: The Arizona Daily Star has more.
The sniper's plan: kill six whites a day for 30 days. Who crawled into the back of their converted blue Chevrolet and shot the victims as they filled their cars with petrol, did their shopping.

Beltway Snipers. At 3:19 in the morning on October 24, 2002, to be exact, the FBI closed in on the snipers and their 1990 Chevy Caprice. Among the victims was one of our own—FBI intelligence. The Motive for the Murders Is More Twisted Than You Think. The first question anyone.

DC Sniper Case Study: Example Question and Quality of Information Check

Analytic Question

Question: Who is the DC Sniper?

Discussion of the Analytic Question: The analytic question meets the criteria of:

At least one plausible explanation exists with some geospatial aspect, e.g., the sniper is a serial criminal and conforms to that typical geospatial pattern.
Counter-explanations are possible, e.g., the sniper is a domestic terrorist and conforms to that geospatial pattern.
The hypotheses can be defined sufficiently to allow us to gather evidence, e.g., we have research supporting the establishment of specific patterns.

There were attempts to geographically profile the killers, that is, predict where they will kill next based on the killer's spatial pattern or signature. Geographic profiling brings the science of geography, criminology, mathematical modeling, statistical analysis, and environmental and forensic psychology into the realm of criminal investigation. Below is a news report about Dr. Kim Rossmo's geographic profiling:

Computer profiler aids in sniper hunt

By Jeordan Legon (CNN), October 8, 2002

Police Foundation Director Kim Rossmo says geographic profiling 'provides an optimal search strategy.'

Beltway Sniper Victims List Picture

(CNN) -- Software is leading the way for investigators trying to pinpoint a Washington-area sniper. Geographic profiling, developed by former Vancouver, British Columbia, police detective Kim Rossmo, tries to zero in on the suspect by using computers to track the mass of data flooding investigators' desks -- location, dates and times of crimes. The program then matches the information with what criminologists know about human nature. Rossmo told reporters his software can help police determine where a suspect lives within half a mile. 'In effect, it provides an optimal search strategy,' Rossmo said. Rossmo, director of the Washington-based Police Foundation, started assisting investigators in the sniper case last week. Calculating the path, his software, which was developed by a commercial vendor and named Rigel, carries out millions of mathematical equations to give investigators a better sense of a killer's 'hunting area' and where he is likely to live. Rossmo said he relies on what psychologists term the 'least-effort' theory. Crimes typically happen 'fairly close to an offender's home but not too close,' he said. 'At some point, for a given offender, their desire for anonymity balances their desire to operate in their comfort zone,' he said. Rossmo's system has been used by Scotland Yard, the FBI, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, and dozens of police agencies worldwide. Rossmo developed it while walking the beat in Canada and reading widely -- including a book on the hunting patterns of African lions. The geo-profiling technology was his doctoral thesis. Methods help solve serial murders. Geo-profilers claim their methods have helped detectives solve about half of the 450 cases they've studied -- everything from serial rapes to serial murders. 'It's the high-tech version of the pin map,' said Richard Bennett, a professor of justice at American University. 'The concept is simple. But you can put a lot more information in. .. It's what you do with the information that is key.' Bennett said nothing takes the place of good, old-fashioned detective work but computerized geo-mapping techniques help. 'The advantage is you're using computer science and computer analytic abilities to solve a crime,' he said. ' You don't have a big city police chief out there who isn't using some form of this mapping.'

For geographic profiling to produce accurate profiles the serial offenders must follow a predictable spatial model (or pattern). There is good reason to believe serial offenders do. Research has repeatedly shown that the majority of serial criminals travel relatively short distances from home to commit their crimes. Research has also demonstrated that the home location of many serial offender's crimes literally surround their home; referred to as a marauding pattern. These are the primary reasons for the effectiveness of geographic profiling when applied to 'typical' criminals. When serial offenders behave in ways that contradict these behaviors, such as terrorist activity, geographic profiling will typically be ineffective (Bennell, 2007). For more general information see, Forecasting the Future of Predictive Crime Mapping; specifically look at the section on 'The Role of Theory in Predictive Mapping.'

Grounding

The geospatial aspects of the DC Snipers actions can still help to answer our question as part of a bottom-up processes (from data to theory) or top-down (from theory to data). The bottom-up process converts raw information into knowledge of our killers. The top-down process provides evidence to support or disconfirm the assumed spatial signature of the killers. The question we have asked is, who is the DC Sniper (based on the total evidence we have including their spatial profile)?

Referring to the case study, the DC Beltway sniper attacks took place during three weeks in October 2002, in Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Virginia. Ten people were killed and three others critically injured in various locations throughout the Washington Metropolitan Area and along Interstate 95 in Virginia.

There are several important definitions we will use. These are:

A serial killer is a person who murders three or more people over a period of more than thirty days, with a 'cooling off' period between each murder, and whose motivation for killing is largely based on psychological gratification.
Domestic terrorism is violence committed by a group, or groups, of two or more individuals to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives.
Foreign terrorism is violence committed by a group, or groups, of two or more individuals originating outside the US to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives.

Maps of the shootings and ballistics information can be found at the Washington Post Area Sniper web site.

This map pinpoints the locations of the DC area sniper shootings and includes parts of Maryland, Washington DC, and Virginia. The points are numbered 1-14. Most of the points on the map (#s 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 15) are clustered in a similar area just outside of Washington D.C., in Maryland. Points numbered 1 and 10 are further east in Maryland, points 11 and 13 are further south in Virginia, point 8 is within the D.C. city limits, and points 9, 12, and 14 are much further south in Virginia.

As we discussed, there were attempts to spatially 'model' the Sniper's behavior. Here is another article about the geographic profiling:

With no solid leads in their hunt for a sniper who has gunned down eight people in the Washington, D.C., area, investigators have turned to a relatively new technological tool: geographic profiling

(Source: CNN LAW, October 9, 2002)

(Court TV) -- Barring a lucky break, the technology currently seems like the police's best chance to find the shooter, who has killed six, left millions on edge, and single-handedly lowered the attendance rate in Maryland suburban schools. The technique, first used in 1990, operates on the assumption that a serial murderer (or rapist) balances his desire to kill far from home to avoid being recognized with his desire to be in familiar territory. The tension between these two desires usually means that serial killers kill close to home, but not too close, leaving a 'comfort zone' around their home that can be detected mathematically, according to Dr. Kim Rossmo, the technique's pioneer.

Investigators into the Maryland shootings have good cause to be hopeful about geographical profiling's potential. A software program that Rossmo developed called Rigel -- the only professional geographic profiling software currently available -- has in past cases pinpointed a criminal's home within a few bloc